Supporting risk assessment and adaptation at multiple spatial scales: Co-development of methods to utilize uncertain multi-model based information on freshwater-related hazards of climate change (CO-MICC)
Projections on climate change and its impacts are subject to substantial variance. Therefore, using multi-model ensembles is state of the art in quantifying potential future changes of variables relevant for assessing climate change risks. Such ensembles have been generated in the course of work implemented during the initiative “Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project”, using a number of climate models as input for various global hydrological models. The objective of this project is developing methods for providing and using data of a multimodel ensemble on freshwater-related hazards of climate change, suitable for assessing risks and adaptive measures at various spatial scales. Another goal is providing suitable data for different categories of end users, with a focus on the representation of uncertainties. To this end, PUNI (Providing and Utilizing eNsemble Information) methods are participatorily developed in the project, to optimally characterize and handle uncertainties of future hazards. The outcome of the overall project is 1) a manual on the co-developed PUNI-methods, and 2) a web portal with ICWRGC, providing global-scale multi-model ensembles of hydrological variables and derived products to the public.