A synthesis of peer-reviewed literature and own modelling work shows that the MENA region is highly affected by present and future climate change. The agricultural sector, seventy percent of which is rain-fed, is highly exposed to changing climatic conditions. This is of critical importance due to the sector’s major contributions to employment rates and national economies. Impacts will be significant in a 2°C world, as e.g. annual water discharge is projected to drop by another 15-45% (75% in a 4°C world) with unusual heat extremes being projected to affect about one-third of the land area. As a consequence, deteriorating rural livelihoods associated with declining agricultural productivity will continue to contribute to migration flows and, likely, to social unrest and political instability.